Reflecting on Bill Gates’ prophecy

April 8, 2020 Joseph Sassoon No comments exist

The dynamics of the coronavirus crisis is proving that Bill Gates had it right. In a now-famous TED talk video dated April 3, 2015, he predicted that “if anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war”. And he was right on another crucial point – when he argued that “we’re not ready” to face such a catastrophe.

Our unpreparedness, which has become evident in the questionable way the crisis is being handled in many countries, has led to social distancing and personal isolation. This, in turn, has brought about an unprecedented reliance on digital tools that are helping us communicate and support the feeling of togetherness.

The push to digitalize is indeed one of the few benefits of this crisis, but it should not be overemphasized. It may be true that even grandma is learning to use Zoom, and that you can definitely hold that meeting online instead of going to the office. Surely, thanks to COVID-19 many are discovering how digital can be useful to their lives and work. The proof of this is the feeling of deprivation among the families and individuals who do not have computers at home (yes, there are more of them than you may think).

However, we should not celebrate this development as an all-encompassing solution for several reasons.

The first one is that, as humans, we are not made to live physically isolated for long. As Angela Dewan wrote on CNN, Humans Are Terrible at Social Distancing. Probably because touch is the first sense that a baby develops in the womb, we really like to be with other people and exchange handshakes, hugs and kisses. Touching each other releases the same chemicals in the brain and body (endorphins, etc.) that make us happy. This experience is what we miss in teleconferencing, and we’ll do whatever it takes to get it back.

In addition to that, the war against coronavirus must clearly be won in the physical world. When indicating viruses as the biggest threat to mankind, Bill Gates also suggested that the answer to this challenge has to be based on better international coordination among health systems, with the deployment of a rapid healthcare force, and possibly with some support from the military and its logistics capabilities – something that requires a lot of very concrete efforts and investments.

Another reason relates to the fact that the digital world is not exempt from limits and risks. Clearly the advancements of AI, machine learning, and robotics are improving our lives in countless ways and, hopefully, they may soon provide the way to beat this damned virus and other diseases. However, the notion of digitalizing all work doesn’t make sense.

Why? Because we’ll still need the hairdresser. Because being compelled to work digitally for 8 hours a day is alienating. And because technology is progressing so quickly that there’s a huge risk of losing control.

In fact, just as we have been hit by a virus in the real world, we could well be devastated by a very smart malevolent virus or unforeseen lethal algorithm in the digital one.  Elon Musk has been warning us of this danger for years (and Bill Gates too). Computers are now writing their own algorithms, and they are so complex that the human mind cannot comprehend them. In the long term Artificial Intelligence will become smarter than us, therefore relinquishing our grip on the physical world to transfer most of our activities online doesn’t seem a promising idea.

In brief, this is another area where people, organizations, and governments “are not ready”. Finding the right balance between physical and digital will simply become vital, and we should make our preparations to get there as fast as we can.

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