In the first two decades of this century, a number of stories have dominated the world news. Among the most riveting: the Islamic wars fought by the US and its allies after Nine Eleven; the worrying deterioration of the environment caused by climate change; the emergence of China as world power and factory of the planet; the advent of Artificial Intelligence and the danger to your job posed by smarter robots; Brexit, and the prospect of a disintegrating Europe. Still, in the last couple of months the information about those topics (and many others) has been pushed aside by a single narrative. The novel coronavirus is proving to be the greatest story of our time – the most compelling and inescapable.
Besides, Covid-19 is not just ubiquitous in the media: it’s also the issue that dominates private conversations among people. Although it may not be perceived by all, the symbolic power of this story is overwhelming and unprecedented. And for several good reasons.
The number of deaths is only a tragic premise. Internationally, it has already overcome the number of victims from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 75 years ago. In the US, it‘s already above the number of the fallen of the 20-year-long Viet Nam war. Luckily, it has been contained by all the measures enacted in many countries to limit the pandemic – otherwise it might have climbed to millions. But we still don’t know how it will affect the poorest countries of the world, where the virus has not yet reached its full lethal potential. Checking the progression of this number in the evening news has become an angst-ridden ritual for many – an underlying subtext to the coronavirus story.
And yet, there are many other chapters in this narrative – each contributing a great deal to the drama, although in debatable and potentially divisive ways. Here’s a short analysis of the most relevant ones.
The virus’ origin
Where and when did the novel coronavirus first jump on a human? If the date is being scrutinized (and pushed back to at least October 2019 by recent disclosures), the place is the subject of strong controversy.
As everyone knows, President Trump has called corona “the Chinese virus”, a definition that officials in China find irresponsible. Is the story that Covid-19 originated from a Wuhan wet market credible? Mike Pompeo is skeptical of this hypothesis and suspects an accident occurred at Wuhan’s Institute of Virology. US intelligence agencies (and others) exclude that the virus was man-made or genetically engineered, but are still investigating whether it might have escaped from the Wuhan lab. Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, counters it might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan during the Military World Games last fall. As for the Iranians, they are convinced that the virus was cooked up by American scientists to weaken their nation (notwithstanding the high number of deaths in the US). Facts are scarce and conspiracy theories abound, a good recipe for misunderstanding and conflict.
Indeed, the virus’ origin is still a mystery, and the evidence about it appears so far insufficient to prove anything. With patient zero impossible to pinpoint, a lot of the pandemic theme is left to interpretation.
This part of the story may have heavy implications. Trump has already cut the funding of the World Health Organization, on the assumption it failed to take a hasher stance towards China. His administration also suggested it will seek accountability for the spread of the virus and is drawing up plans to punish Beijing on multiple fronts, which might go from additional trade barriers to economic sanctions. China will not accept this idly, and might bring the confrontation to a new unpredictable level. This chapter of the story includes all the components of a geopolitical thriller.
Spread of the disease
Whatever the origin of the pandemic, a lot of media attention has been directed to the notion of ‘social distancing’. Individuals have had to learn what this is, and why it matters. The extremely fast manner Covid-19 spreads across nations has persuaded people everywhere to change their long-established behaviors, quickly adapting to staying at home, avoiding hugs and kisses, keeping one or two meters from one another, wearing masks, and washing hands frequently. That’s not an easy change to impose on 4 billion people in just 2 or 3 months.
At the same time, this part of the story is not exempt from contradictions. By the way, should the distance be one or two meters? Initially Italian authorities told their citizens that one meter was enough. Instead, Israeli authorities said that two meters were needed from the start. How this can have impacted the outcome of the disease is unclear, but subsequent studies have shown that people who sneeze or cough can spread their droplets four meters away, or even more. And it’s a fact that Italy has experienced something like 50 deaths from Covid-19 per 100 thousand inhabitants, whilst Israel just about 3. Most probably other factors concur to this result (for instance, the median age of the population). However, the way social distancing is actually carried out can make a big difference.
Another contentious point is whether lockdowns are really warranted, and what are the human costs of shutting everything down. Here, several questions still go unanswered. The high death toll in countries such as Italy and the UK is attributed to delayed closures, but countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have experienced less deadly outcomes while keeping most activities open. So, is herd immunity a reasonable option or not? And what about children? Are they highly contagious and a big risk to their grandparents, or is this just a disputable, unproved standpoint? The virus story may vary a lot depending on what role children are supposed to play.
Connected to the spreading issue is also the topic of tracing methods. In places like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, contact tracing has proven very helpful in containing Covid-19. But some apps that work pretty well for that purpose are seen negatively in Western countries as potentially infringing on individuals’ rights to privacy. It’s one thing to use advanced technology to track criminals and terrorists, it’s another to track the movements of any of us. In other words, many don’t seem to agree on making corona’s narrative too similar to a detective story.
Effects of the coronavirus crisis
The virus’ fallout, anyway, is definitely huge. The media nowadays are full of content related to this chapter, and our lives bear witness to how impactful Covid-19 can be. In the developed world we are already set in a deep economic recession, which risks becoming the worst depression of the last 100 years. Everybody knows where this trend is headed: the main outcome is joblessness, meaning more and more people are losing their livelihoods and becoming unable to support their families.
This grim reality has already started to take hold (for instance, by producing 33 million unemployed in the US in a matter of weeks); and that’s the reason why so many people are utterly scared of what SARS-CoV-2 could bring – not death, but a fall into poverty.
In developing countries, corona’s effects could be even more devastating. There, the story might rapidly turn into tragedy. According to the Head of United Nations’ World Food Programme, David Beasley, the world is now at risk of famines “of biblical proportions” caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Within a short few months, the number of people suffering from hunger could go from 135 million to more than 250 million.
Yet, economic depression and famines would not be the only catastrophes. As suggested by Nouriel Roubini, the New York-based economist who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis, the current pandemic is accelerating trends toward balkanisation and fragmentation that were already underway in many regions of the world. According to him, more protectionist policies are going to prevail, with tighter restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital, labor, technology, and information. The geostrategic standoff between the US and China will intensify. Populist leaders will benefit from economic weakness, mass unemployment, and rising inequality, leading to a strong impulse to scapegoat foreigners and migrants for the crisis. And there will likely be an upsurge in clandestine cyber warfare, potentially conducive to military clashes.
The peril is certainly there. All these trends could entail the emergence of both new social conflicts inside countries and tensions among them, with heightened risks of isolationism coupled with the internal repression of civil liberties. Some developments may be an anticipation of what is to come. Antonio Guterres, the present UN chief, has recently warned about the dangerous ‘tsunami’ of hate speech that has risen alongside the Covid-19 pandemic. In his view social media companies and civil society must urgently stand up to the many forms of xenophobia, racism and intolerance that have surfaced during the crisis. Absent a concerted effort in this direction, anti-foreigner sentiment, antisemitic conspiracy theories, attacks against Muslims, and the targeting of journalists, health workers, human right activists despised just for doing their job, will only rise further.
Technology: the light at the end of the tunnel
The dark connotations of the previous chapter of the story – providing the emotional climax to it – are fortunately counterbalanced by the promises deriving from the extraordinarily quick scientific progress in dealing with SARS-CoV-2.
Although it’s not certain that a vaccine for this disease may ever be found (as it was never found for HIV, the virus causing AIDS), many research teams around the world are competing in the quest for it. Huge sums and energies are being invested. And the general expectation is that, in this case, the time needed to find and bring a vaccine to market will be just a fraction of the many years of research and trial that have always been necessary in previous pandemics.
Also, technology is already providing precious help in other ways. The novel coronavirus genome was sequenced in record time and shared by Chinese medical authorities on January 11, only a couple of weeks after they had alerted the WHO of the new pathogen. Today the advanced apps that ensure the precise tracking of infected people – though not liked by all – allow those who have not got the virus to keep distant and protected. Besides, a number of treatments have been very fast devised and approved for use on patients, with life-saving results. New drugs are expected to be available soon.
Sure, the limits to our ability to cure and treat people affected by SARS-CoV-2 remain important. The death toll attests to this situation. However, the level of scientific awareness reached by mankind has created a totally new situation. As Homo Sapiens author Yuval Harari recently wrote, when in the 14th century the Black Death killed more than a quarter of all humans in Asia and Europe, people had no idea of what caused it: “They usually blamed the plague on angry gods or black magic, and the best thing they could think of doing was hold mass prayers to the gods – which often led to mass infections.” (Viruses were only discovered in the last decade of the 19th century). And when in 1918 the Spanish flu killed far more people than World War I, no one had an inkling of what a genome is – not to say how to sequence one. The much more favorable way a pandemic can be faced in our time is entirely due to the advancements of science. And technology is the light sword that will guide us through the darkness – and possibly save us.
The future of the human-virus relationship
Yet, scientific awareness doesn’t necessarily mean wisdom. Thus, at this stage, how this captivating story will end is uncertain. As I have remarked in a previous post, SARS-CoV-2 has all the traits of the perfect villain. Not by chance, this has led many people to state that ‘we are at war’ with an invisible, deadly enemy. The media are fond of this scenario and have made it their own. Indeed, there are many reasons to set the corona narrative as a fight between the human species and a sinister evil force. The virus is undoubtedly a merciless killer. And health workers are waging a terrible battle with great courage and dignity. But, if pushed too far, this representation may not be the wisest, and risks being misleading.
In fact, other perspectives are possible. What if, just for an instant, we adopted the viewpoint of the virus? That’s exactly what the beautiful video titled #what future do you choose does. Instead of depicting SARS-CoV-2 as a faceless, unforgiving enemy, it gives it a voice. What does corona say? It says that most viruses are usually kept in check by healthy environment and only get to know their original host animal (without jumping species); that the blame for what is happening now should be placed on humans, who rip forests apart thus bringing viruses like itself out of their natural quarantine; and that humankind should finally understand how its behavior is affecting the planet.
What this video actually does is making us realize that the novel coronavirus story should mainly be framed as a narrative of environmental imbalance. Its conclusion about who bears responsibility for a better future is very clear: only humans – not viruses – can choose to make wiser choices in what they consume and how they live.
Can this be the real happy ending of this story? Is there a way for us to grasp that our lifestyles and consumption habits are leading the Earth to disastrous consequences? As bad as the pandemic is to many people, it has also brought us less air pollution – and jellyfish once again swimming in Venice’s crystal-clean waters. Evidently something has to be corrected in the manner we interact with our world. Will the environmental implications of the Covid-19 outbreak become a relevant and lasting part of the ‘new normal’? It’s hard to say. What is certain is that the way the great coronavirus narrative develops in the future will depend very much on all of us.